Stale data: race odds were last refreshed 8 days ago (2026-11-06T02:02Z). The per-race history charts are live, but the headline numbers, map, and chamber odds may be out of date.
The 2026 midterms in probability
Live prediction-market odds for every U.S. House district and Senate race, sourced from Kalshi and aggregated into chamber-level seat distributions. Click any district or state to see the underlying race.
435house seats
35senate seats
kalshi: 435/435 house · 35/35 senate · 2026-11-06T02:02Z
01 · expected outcomes — house — 435 seats
independent-races assumption · monte carlo with correlation in v2261vs177expected · D-leaning
chance of majorityD 100.0%·R 0.0%
±2.3 σ · 90% CI 257–264 D
majority 218
256
160
Safe D256
Likely D3
Lean D1
Likely R15
Safe R160
loading 119th-congress district boundaries…