The 2026 midterms in probability
Live prediction-market odds for every U.S. House district and Senate race, sourced from Kalshi and aggregated into chamber-level seat distributions. Click any district or state to see the underlying race.
435house seats
35senate seats
kalshi: 435/435 house · 35/35 senate · 2026-07-07T04:53Z
01 · expected outcomes — house — 435 seats
independent-races assumption · monte carlo with correlation in v2236vs198expected · D-leaning
chance of majorityD 99.8%·R 0.1%
±6.2 σ · 90% CI 226–246 D
majority 218
104
99
20
32
133
37
Safe D104
Likely D99
Lean D20
Tossup10
Lean R32
Likely R133
Safe R37
loading 119th-congress district boundaries…