The 2026 midterms in probability
Live prediction-market odds for every U.S. House district and Senate race, sourced from Kalshi and aggregated into chamber-level seat distributions. Click any district or state to see the underlying race.
435house seats
35senate seats
kalshi: 435/435 house · 35/35 senate · 2026-05-11T22:09Z
01 · expected outcomes — house — 435 seats
independent-races assumption · monte carlo with correlation in v2238vs197expected · D-leaning
chance of majorityD 100.0%·R 0.0%
±6.3 σ · 90% CI 228–248 D
majority 218
130
70
23
37
137
24
Safe D130
Likely D70
Lean D23
Tossup14
Lean R37
Likely R137
Safe R24
loading 119th-congress district boundaries…